DealBook: Will tariffs ding earnings?
Good morning. Andrew here. We've got a provocative idea to chew on: Should directors of public companies be licensed? That's a concept being explored in our new feature, "Hot Take," today involving Jonathan Foster, a former managing director at Lazard. I'm curious what you think. Meantime, we're taking a look at the earnings reports streaming in; Polymarket's plan to make betting available in the United States, and your thoughts on the Coldplay kiss-cam episode I wrote about yesterday. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here.)
C.E.O.s in the spotlightWall Street had set a pretty low bar for this earnings season. Fears that President Trump's trade war would roil supply chains and inflation and concerns of consumers pulling back on purchases were expected to weigh on corporate profits and guidance. So far, that hasn't materialized. The S&P 500 closed at another record yesterday, helped by a batch of somewhat upbeat earnings calls, even with little evident progress on trade talks before Trump's Aug. 1 tariffs deadline. But a new test begins this week. Bellwethers like Coca-Cola and General Motors are next in line. The carmaker this morning reported a second-quarter sales decline, and said that tariffs on foreign-made vehicles and parts wiped out $1.1 billion in profits in the same period. Stellantis said something similar yesterday. Mary Barra, G.M.'s C.E.O., wrote in a statement that the company was adapting "to new trade and tax policies, and a rapidly evolving tech landscape." And tomorrow, Elon Musk's Tesla and Google's Alphabet are set to deliver earnings with big questions around, among other things, their bets on artificial intelligence. (Tesla shareholders will also want plenty of detail on the company's goals for its Robotaxi rollout, and whether Musk sees any sign of its sales slump ending, especially with the Trump administration ending this fall a tax credit of up to $7,500 for electric vehicle purchases.) It's worth noting that the A.I. trade has stormed back with the so-called Magnificent Seven grouping, which includes Alphabet and Tesla, on a nine-session winning streak. With investors' expectations sky high, can the rally continue? Watch the airlines for clues on consumer strength. Delta Air Lines reported stronger-than-expected results this month, and Ed Bastian, the carrier's C.E.O., said consumer and corporate confidence was expected to improve. Southwest Airlines and American Airlines report results on Thursday, with analysts closely watching for evidence on whether that trend is continuing. Citing Transportation Security Administration data, Bank of America economists noted that travel demand had bounced back this month, despite a weak dollar. "This recovery, along with stronger-than-expected retail sales in June, suggests the consumer remains in decent health," Savita Subramanian, an equity strategist at Bank of America, wrote in a research note this week. Will C.E.O.s say something similar?
The heat grows on Jay Powell and the Fed. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent yesterday called for a wide-ranging internal review of the central bank, as President Trump continues to assail Powell, the Fed chair, for not lowering interest rates. Central bank independence is sacrosanct, Bessent reiterated, but investors are worried that it's already under threat by Trump's broadsides. Hewlett Packard Enterprise is owed about 700 million pounds ($945 million) over a deal with Mike Lynch. The estate of Lynch, the British entrepreneur who died when his yacht sank last summer, and his former C.F.O. were ordered to pay Hewlett Packard Enterprises civil damages in a fraud case related to the takeover of their software company, Autonomy, in 2011. The amount is less than the $4 billion that H.P.E. had sought but is more than a recent estimated value of the Lynch estate. JPMorgan Chase reportedly looks to embrace crypto in a big way. The lender is weighing whether to let clients borrow against their digital currency holdings, according to The Financial Times. Such a move would be a major U-turn for Jamie Dimon, the bank's C.E.O., who years ago had likened Bitcoin trading to a form of "fraud." Polymarket is on a rollPolymarket is betting big on a U.S. comeback. The crypto-based prediction market yesterday announced that it had acquired a small derivatives exchange, paving the way for Polymarket to legally resume operations in the country. That comes after the Justice Department last week dropped an investigation into the site as the Trump administration continues its embrace of the crypto industry. Polymarket's potential return has big implications for that fast-moving sector. "It does seem like prediction markets are going to have this at minimum four-year window of friendly regulation," Eric Zitzewitz, an economics professor at Dartmouth who studies prediction markets, told DealBook. "It makes sense to try to grow as rapidly as they can during this window." A recap: Polymarket, which is reportedly valued at more than $1 billion and whose backers include the Founders Fund that Peter Thiel helped start, lets users place bets on elections, sports, economic policy and more. It soared in popularity during the 2024 presidential election season, with gamblers wagering more than $100 million on the outcome of the race. That's even as it was essentially blocked from allowing U.S. users to use its platform, after a 2022 settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The Biden administration had opened an inquiry into whether that rule was breached. And during the waning days of the administration, the F.B.I. carried out a search at the New York home of Polymarket's C.E.O., Shayne Coplan. Polymarket's latest deal presents a legal pathway. The company said yesterday that it had closed a $112 million agreement to buy QCX, a small derivatives exchange that recently obtained licensing from the commission. That said, it's not an immediate flip of the switch to enter the U.S. market; other steps are involved. "Demand is greater than ever," Coplan said in a statement announcing the acquisition, adding that it was a key step to "re-entering the U.S. as a fully regulated and compliant platform that will allow Americans to trade their opinions." The deal could shake up a highly competitive sector, enabling Polymarket to expand beyond prediction markets. Kalshi, a Polymarket rival that is regulated by the commission and counts Donald Trump Jr. as an adviser, has pushed to expand into offering sports event contracts (though it is facing regulatory hurdles). Hot Take: Board members should be licensedIn "Hot Take," we explore out-of-the-box solutions for big problems. Jonathan Foster, a consultant and former managing director at Lazard, has served on more than 50 corporate boards. Along the way, he says, he has encountered directors who have stayed too long, or ones whose "knowledge of financial statements and M&A is lacking." He drew on that experience in "On Board: The Modern Playbook for Corporate Governance," his new book. One of his big ideas for improving director performance: "a license," he told DealBook, like the kind required "for investment bankers, doctors, lawyers, even massage therapists." That, he said, "might increase confidence in corporate directors." How it would work: Some of the requirements Foster envisions include 10 years of work experience, being at least 35 and passing an exam covering legal standards, basic accounting and finance principles, and ethics. "It doesn't have to be particularly onerous," he said, comparing it to the Series 7 exam for financial advisers. To issue licenses, he says, the New York Stock Exchange could oversee an organization like Harvard Business School or the National Association of Corporate Directors. He says he sees the arrangement as akin to how the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board operates under the authority of the S.E.C. That independent nonprofit group, he noted, "has commissioners, and they go do their thing, but they're ultimately responsible to and can be pre-empted by the S.E.C." Is it workable? DealBook asked Edward Rock, a professor of corporate governance at the New York University School of Law. He said he worried that standardized requirements for diverse companies could disqualify board members with otherwise strong attributes. For example, he wrote in an email to DealBook, "Why would anyone want to prevent Mark Zuckerberg (28 at the time of Facebook's I.P.O.) or Larry Page and Sergey Brin" — both in their thirties when Google listed — "from serving on the board of directors of Facebook and Google?" (Foster said exceptions could be created, including for founders.) Shareholders have an incentive to demand the most qualified board members, Rock continued, and they tend to do so.
Chart of the dayEven with Bitcoin on a tear, Wall Street is closely watching another type of digital asset: the stablecoin. These tokens are often backed by short-term U.S. Treasuries and dollar deposits. Last week, President Trump signed a bill known as the Genius Act that supporters hope will make stablecoins a mainstream payment system. And Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, recently told Congress that stablecoin usage could drive up demand for U.S. government debt. Tether, a big stablecoin issuer, has become a major player in the market for Treasury notes, making it one of the largest holders of U.S. debt, according to Deutsche Bank researchers.
Your thoughts on the kiss-cam episodeAndrew's note yesterday about Andy Byron, the C.E.O. of a tech start-up caught on camera with a colleague from H.R. at a Coldplay concert, struck a nerve with DealBook readers, who have flooded our inbox with responses. "The moment seems to encapsulate the pervasive schadenfreude within our culture, especially our office culture, and a deep-seated animosity toward bosses and colleagues," Andrew wrote. "It highlights a zero-sum mentality in which a colleague's success is perceived as your loss, and their failure your gain." He added that, "The incident also underscores our surveillance state." Here's what readers had to say:
And beyond our inbox … Elias Leight at The Wall Street Journal notes that Byron should have known the risks. Coldplay, Leight wrote, "has been turning the camera on its fans for over a year, giving lead singer Chris Martin the opportunity to ad-lib goofy mini-songs about concertgoers."
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